* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 51 49 45 39 34 28 25 21 21 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 51 49 45 39 34 28 25 21 21 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 53 52 50 47 43 41 39 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 17 21 21 25 22 21 22 17 10 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 2 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 27 45 37 39 45 31 4 13 77 86 94 88 246 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.6 25.5 25.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 132 132 131 130 124 119 118 122 111 109 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 111 111 111 111 107 101 101 105 96 93 89 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 9 9 11 10 10 9 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 45 45 49 49 42 43 45 47 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 5 5 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -13 -22 -31 -28 0 -26 -75 -79 -81 -28 17 97 200 MB DIV 26 2 -16 -19 -16 -4 12 -61 -11 -7 -1 0 39 700-850 TADV 3 2 4 2 3 1 5 8 11 2 28 9 7 LAND (KM) 310 364 412 441 470 440 448 521 662 783 755 761 737 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.6 29.0 29.5 30.0 31.1 32.3 33.4 34.3 35.5 37.1 38.3 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.2 76.8 76.4 76.2 76.0 74.8 72.7 70.8 68.8 66.1 62.5 59.6 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 9 10 10 11 15 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 12 12 12 8 3 3 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -22. -25. -29. -29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/18/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)