* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 53 64 77 82 86 83 81 73 64 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 53 64 77 82 86 83 81 73 64 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 46 48 49 52 56 64 71 73 67 58 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 15 16 13 6 9 8 5 8 12 12 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 5 5 4 1 7 5 3 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 23 18 356 351 36 58 65 351 114 19 23 33 44 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.6 28.7 26.7 25.6 24.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 152 154 157 158 163 152 130 118 110 98 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -51.6 -51.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 6 8 9 7 5 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 78 76 79 79 80 76 72 74 68 69 64 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 16 16 19 22 21 22 24 25 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 16 12 6 -3 -6 -3 4 19 14 18 16 26 32 200 MB DIV 46 65 81 107 115 78 134 76 110 29 13 6 -21 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -6 -6 -6 -8 -5 5 1 5 6 -1 2 LAND (KM) 392 416 446 491 456 414 384 346 378 483 434 433 495 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.9 14.3 15.8 17.3 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 93.3 94.2 95.7 97.2 100.3 102.8 105.3 107.8 109.8 111.0 112.4 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 12 15 16 15 14 14 12 9 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 5 11 10 9 28 37 21 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 23. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 13. 15. 16. 19. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 24. 37. 42. 46. 43. 41. 33. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##