* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 56 55 50 44 34 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 56 55 50 44 34 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 60 59 56 51 46 40 35 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 24 26 27 25 30 33 29 20 15 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 0 -3 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 43 38 32 44 32 359 349 35 46 35 11 284 279 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.5 26.7 25.3 24.0 20.4 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 130 129 127 120 120 123 111 101 82 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 112 110 110 109 104 103 106 98 90 75 68 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 10 10 10 9 9 6 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 45 46 47 49 55 48 45 46 54 50 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -19 -28 -33 -20 -18 -53 -81 -85 -41 7 37 70 200 MB DIV -7 -24 -10 -1 5 -17 -40 -27 -7 -7 10 15 30 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 1 3 7 11 9 30 18 37 54 18 LAND (KM) 362 420 478 478 459 415 474 657 748 705 628 511 417 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.2 29.8 30.3 30.8 32.1 33.7 34.9 36.0 37.7 40.2 42.1 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 76.8 76.4 75.9 75.4 74.9 73.4 71.2 68.7 65.8 62.1 57.6 53.6 50.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 11 12 13 15 19 20 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 11 11 13 4 5 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -5. -11. -21. -30. -38. -44. -48. -52. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/19/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/19/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)