* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 69 79 87 89 92 87 77 74 64 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 69 79 87 89 92 87 77 74 64 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 60 63 66 71 77 85 90 86 76 66 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 8 11 5 2 5 4 8 7 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 2 1 10 6 3 0 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 15 6 9 31 68 32 59 123 25 56 34 28 68 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.6 28.2 26.6 25.7 24.9 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 154 157 157 160 162 146 128 119 111 98 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -51.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.9 -50.1 -50.7 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 7 6 9 8 8 5 6 3 2 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 78 76 79 74 72 68 65 64 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 14 14 17 19 20 18 20 20 18 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -2 -11 -11 -7 -4 6 9 17 15 20 12 19 200 MB DIV 59 67 72 73 100 83 89 63 48 6 7 -26 -9 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -3 -6 -1 1 3 0 2 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 411 459 466 428 400 396 357 354 401 478 443 431 472 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.6 15.0 16.4 17.6 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.8 96.1 97.5 98.9 101.5 104.0 106.3 108.3 109.8 110.9 112.2 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 12 10 7 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 11 8 12 6 15 44 36 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 17. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 9. 7. 10. 10. 7. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 19. 29. 37. 39. 42. 37. 27. 24. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/19/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##