* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/19/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 37 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 37 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 40 39 37 35 32 29 26 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 25 27 25 22 24 26 33 30 20 14 23 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -1 -3 0 0 1 -2 -2 0 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 44 37 42 37 17 344 3 60 65 50 8 324 323 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.6 26.8 25.1 24.4 21.2 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 130 129 126 120 121 124 109 104 86 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 110 110 110 108 103 104 107 96 92 78 73 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 8 11 10 10 9 7 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 47 50 51 44 45 45 45 45 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -21 -22 -14 -4 -14 -61 -86 -81 -57 -11 -16 -45 200 MB DIV -20 -24 -9 0 -7 0 -51 -17 -6 -4 -10 -5 -12 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 1 3 3 12 17 12 44 26 30 51 LAND (KM) 383 443 483 460 444 426 491 679 692 674 708 584 606 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.1 32.3 33.9 35.3 36.7 38.2 39.8 41.5 43.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 76.2 75.7 75.2 74.7 73.0 70.9 68.4 65.6 61.6 56.6 52.0 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 11 12 13 16 19 20 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 11 12 9 3 7 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -12. -17. -24. -33. -38. -41. -44. -51. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/19/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/19/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/19/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)