* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/19/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 67 71 82 87 92 92 87 78 72 60 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 67 71 82 87 92 92 87 78 72 60 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 65 69 72 78 85 90 90 83 72 61 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 11 7 12 8 2 1 11 5 6 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 5 1 8 8 9 5 5 1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 11 23 29 61 41 84 293 40 13 310 344 342 31 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.3 27.9 26.5 25.6 24.6 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 156 156 158 161 158 143 127 118 108 92 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -51.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 76 76 78 76 74 75 66 64 63 65 60 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 14 17 20 20 21 22 21 18 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -19 -19 -17 -15 -9 0 -4 11 12 8 4 -11 200 MB DIV 69 78 77 116 90 90 55 91 12 4 -19 -30 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -6 -10 -1 3 -4 0 12 0 4 -1 LAND (KM) 487 462 447 418 422 420 374 370 420 477 410 367 387 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.5 13.0 14.1 15.5 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.3 20.3 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.6 97.9 99.3 100.7 103.1 105.3 107.1 108.6 109.9 110.9 112.2 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 11 7 11 37 38 30 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 13. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 7. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 16. 27. 32. 37. 37. 32. 23. 17. 5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/19/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/19/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##