* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 39 37 35 33 30 27 24 22 22 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 28 24 27 20 28 28 15 12 10 29 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 0 3 2 2 -3 0 -2 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 38 40 38 15 352 351 50 52 63 67 273 262 255 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.8 26.7 25.0 23.0 20.9 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 130 129 127 123 119 122 122 106 93 84 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 110 109 108 104 101 104 102 91 81 75 69 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 9 10 9 10 7 7 5 3 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 53 52 50 45 42 41 39 37 41 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 8 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -24 -18 0 -7 -15 -53 -86 -58 -34 6 80 124 200 MB DIV -19 -17 4 -6 -19 -28 -33 -18 -6 -11 10 12 48 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 3 1 9 4 15 6 22 2 -22 -24 LAND (KM) 453 494 478 463 434 432 474 610 596 555 508 459 389 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.0 30.4 31.0 31.5 32.8 34.4 35.8 37.2 38.6 40.1 41.6 43.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.1 75.7 75.2 74.6 74.0 72.4 70.9 69.0 66.6 64.2 61.4 58.4 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 11 13 5 5 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -24. -31. -37. -41. -40. -40. -44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/19/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)