* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 75 83 87 96 91 85 75 67 57 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 75 83 87 96 91 85 75 67 57 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 64 67 74 81 88 89 82 71 61 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 8 8 6 5 2 3 10 13 10 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 5 6 5 2 3 1 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 9 37 64 31 116 54 57 351 26 348 23 5 43 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 28.9 27.7 26.6 25.6 24.3 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 157 158 160 161 153 140 128 118 105 84 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.2 -49.9 -50.9 -50.1 -50.9 -50.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 1 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 75 77 73 70 68 64 67 63 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 17 18 19 19 18 22 21 22 20 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -17 -14 -9 -6 1 0 17 5 23 3 5 0 200 MB DIV 70 83 112 98 92 67 41 116 4 22 -41 -9 -25 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -7 -14 -4 -2 2 0 3 3 5 2 -2 LAND (KM) 456 423 399 385 375 357 354 361 397 434 343 324 361 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.3 13.9 15.0 16.3 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.9 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.8 99.2 100.5 101.7 104.0 106.1 107.6 108.7 109.7 110.8 112.3 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 12 10 8 6 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 7 10 15 44 36 23 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 10. 9. 10. 8. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 28. 32. 41. 36. 30. 20. 12. 2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##