* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 07/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 45 47 43 35 37 33 26 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 45 47 43 35 37 33 26 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 35 35 33 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 18 17 22 24 17 13 31 30 40 33 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 -1 -8 -2 -6 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 354 314 274 259 258 267 286 4 17 27 31 25 16 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.4 24.7 24.4 24.3 23.8 23.5 22.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 117 116 115 110 105 102 100 96 94 90 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 103 102 101 96 91 88 86 82 80 77 75 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -55.1 -55.9 -55.7 -55.5 -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 56 55 50 43 44 48 49 49 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 8 10 11 10 10 8 4 16 20 21 13 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -34 -23 -22 -26 -31 -60 -96 -115 -98 -97 -82 -84 200 MB DIV 23 33 52 43 47 14 -24 -17 5 14 2 24 10 700-850 TADV 23 15 12 22 13 7 12 19 22 14 5 10 3 LAND (KM) 1087 1133 1144 1166 1196 1155 1075 1119 1223 1347 1435 1476 1530 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.6 34.0 34.5 35.0 36.3 37.4 38.1 38.7 39.1 39.6 40.7 42.3 LONG(DEG W) 64.3 62.4 60.4 58.6 56.7 53.3 49.5 46.0 42.8 40.2 38.3 36.7 34.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 12 9 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 5. 1. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -2. 8. 12. 12. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 19. 10. 12. 8. 1. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 07/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 07/19/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 07/19/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)