* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 75 80 87 91 88 84 73 68 58 48 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 75 80 87 91 88 84 73 68 58 48 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 67 71 74 83 90 94 89 77 64 52 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 12 12 11 8 11 11 7 9 10 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 1 -1 4 3 3 4 11 4 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 28 48 45 116 91 72 75 25 28 5 343 18 11 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.5 28.5 27.1 25.9 24.7 23.1 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 158 159 162 159 148 134 122 109 92 74 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 77 75 77 77 75 69 68 65 65 63 65 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 18 19 20 19 18 17 18 16 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -14 -9 -5 -10 0 0 5 12 17 8 8 11 200 MB DIV 81 115 116 122 109 3 94 24 37 35 12 8 11 700-850 TADV -3 -13 -15 -2 -3 -5 0 3 9 0 7 -7 2 LAND (KM) 381 362 372 362 358 325 333 364 402 335 298 328 307 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.9 16.9 17.9 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.9 99.2 100.5 101.8 103.0 105.1 106.8 108.1 109.2 110.4 111.8 113.1 114.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 13 11 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 5 13 16 43 44 38 12 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 6. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 4. 1. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 27. 31. 28. 24. 13. 8. -2. -12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/19/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##