* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/20/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 41 38 33 29 26 25 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 26 26 24 27 38 26 12 6 20 47 51 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 2 1 -1 1 2 0 -2 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 45 22 1 2 2 48 48 57 12 293 266 248 243 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.8 26.5 24.1 21.4 18.5 14.6 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 127 125 123 119 123 120 100 86 77 70 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 108 107 104 101 105 102 87 76 71 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 11 11 10 10 8 6 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 53 50 50 47 45 46 43 40 41 45 53 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 1 -13 -14 -34 -78 -99 -59 -8 36 45 113 114 200 MB DIV -8 -21 -34 -17 -25 -34 -25 -12 -10 0 7 50 38 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 6 9 4 34 18 36 0 -27 17 16 LAND (KM) 473 464 444 430 432 502 631 588 503 462 419 266 264 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.0 31.5 32.2 32.9 34.1 35.7 37.4 39.2 40.9 42.6 44.3 46.0 LONG(DEG W) 75.3 74.6 73.8 73.1 72.3 70.7 68.8 66.4 63.6 60.7 57.4 53.8 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 18 12 6 7 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -7. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -14. -23. -30. -36. -37. -42. -46. -53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/20/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/20/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/20/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)