* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 07/20/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 51 54 50 42 35 25 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 51 54 50 42 35 25 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 36 36 35 32 29 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 20 23 24 25 17 28 36 33 23 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 323 285 261 262 265 249 300 6 357 2 1 332 339 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.7 24.8 23.7 22.9 21.3 18.7 16.0 15.2 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 118 117 114 107 99 94 87 79 73 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 105 103 100 94 88 83 78 73 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.8 -55.8 -55.6 -55.4 -55.7 -55.2 -55.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 55 54 55 52 49 48 50 54 50 54 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 10 13 13 14 13 12 9 10 8 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -26 -19 -9 -13 -18 -47 -74 -75 -73 -94 -95 -99 200 MB DIV 25 56 40 56 51 29 13 11 2 19 15 0 -14 700-850 TADV 12 17 20 18 10 15 17 17 11 26 26 25 24 LAND (KM) 1199 1206 1239 1232 1220 1057 1027 1146 1297 1517 1423 972 683 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.6 34.1 34.9 35.6 37.4 39.1 40.6 42.5 44.8 47.1 48.4 48.0 LONG(DEG W) 61.8 59.8 57.8 56.0 54.2 50.4 45.9 41.6 37.8 33.5 28.5 22.7 17.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 19 19 18 18 20 21 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 5. 1. -4. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 26. 29. 25. 17. 10. 0. -8. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 07/20/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 07/20/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 07/20/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)