* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 40 37 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 40 37 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 36 30 26 23 22 22 23 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 26 24 30 32 37 23 17 7 19 38 46 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 1 0 1 1 5 2 -2 -2 2 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 17 4 2 358 29 64 40 36 348 292 276 250 N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.9 25.8 23.6 21.6 18.1 12.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 125 123 121 118 124 113 97 87 76 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 106 104 103 102 105 97 84 77 70 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 10 10 11 9 8 4 4 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 48 45 45 42 36 41 39 50 57 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 8 7 6 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -11 -13 -34 -60 -86 -73 -52 -22 11 63 102 N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -27 -9 -24 -76 -31 -21 -1 -11 1 24 53 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 8 10 5 12 24 39 14 26 23 -10 N/A LAND (KM) 471 448 443 443 452 569 640 603 527 481 422 234 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.4 32.0 32.7 33.3 34.8 36.5 38.1 39.7 41.3 43.0 45.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.7 73.9 73.1 72.4 71.7 69.7 67.2 64.7 61.7 58.6 55.0 51.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 18 14 7 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -18. -29. -38. -43. -46. -50. -53. -57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/20/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/20/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)