* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 79 84 89 92 92 88 81 73 57 47 34 V (KT) LAND 70 74 79 84 89 92 92 88 81 73 57 47 34 V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 79 83 88 96 100 93 79 64 50 38 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 9 11 12 8 4 8 9 6 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -2 -1 5 1 14 5 5 5 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 29 119 107 71 63 50 38 32 347 345 33 1 94 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.6 28.3 26.9 25.8 24.6 22.6 20.7 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 161 163 161 146 132 120 108 87 68 71 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 6 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 70 69 68 63 63 61 62 60 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 17 17 19 17 17 18 17 19 15 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -14 -3 0 0 9 8 16 3 -7 0 1 200 MB DIV 87 86 127 117 1 62 25 50 23 9 19 3 6 700-850 TADV -14 -2 -3 -7 -3 -8 3 16 1 6 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 354 341 328 303 301 298 335 384 269 226 268 312 453 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.3 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 102.2 103.4 104.4 105.3 106.9 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.6 113.1 114.9 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 48 49 44 34 13 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. -1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 22. 18. 11. 3. -13. -23. -36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/20/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##