* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 39 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 39 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 36 30 26 24 24 25 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 26 30 32 39 39 23 9 11 31 42 55 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 2 0 -1 2 3 -3 -2 6 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 6 8 7 28 44 59 71 29 277 260 253 249 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.8 24.9 22.5 20.1 16.4 11.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 120 119 121 123 105 91 81 73 67 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 105 102 101 103 104 90 80 73 68 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.0 -51.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 10 10 8 8 5 3 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 46 42 43 43 44 38 41 39 46 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -35 -62 -74 -101 -57 -42 -4 75 97 79 N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -25 -21 -44 -43 -13 -12 2 14 16 26 11 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 8 12 4 2 15 17 34 34 -36 -60 -61 N/A LAND (KM) 438 426 433 443 474 614 601 542 491 434 355 203 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.0 32.6 33.3 33.9 35.4 37.1 38.7 40.3 41.9 43.6 45.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.1 73.4 72.6 71.9 71.1 69.1 66.7 64.3 61.4 58.3 54.8 51.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 12 13 14 15 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 8 7 7 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -9. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -26. -33. -35. -37. -41. -47. -50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/20/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)