* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 07/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 47 46 38 33 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 47 46 38 33 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 38 37 34 30 26 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 29 31 22 22 15 22 36 34 26 18 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -9 -2 -3 -4 -2 -5 -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 281 270 271 265 255 298 356 8 23 32 41 69 100 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.0 23.8 23.4 22.4 21.5 19.5 17.8 17.3 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 116 112 108 99 96 90 86 79 74 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 105 102 98 95 88 84 79 76 72 69 66 65 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 -55.9 -55.9 -55.0 -54.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 56 54 52 51 52 52 52 52 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 9 10 8 6 5 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -14 -25 -28 -27 -59 -90 -100 -125 -127 -155 -184 -185 200 MB DIV 30 32 15 11 29 17 -6 -14 -6 -3 10 -16 8 700-850 TADV 17 19 9 26 24 19 17 15 8 13 18 13 7 LAND (KM) 1358 1324 1292 1185 1086 1014 1153 1317 1485 1658 1528 1264 1121 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.2 35.0 36.1 37.1 39.0 40.0 41.1 42.3 43.9 45.0 45.5 45.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.9 55.4 53.9 52.3 50.6 46.4 42.2 38.6 35.4 32.1 28.1 24.6 22.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 16 17 18 18 16 14 14 15 14 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 22 CX,CY: 22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 361 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 3. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -14. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 16. 8. 3. -7. -19. -31. -41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 07/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 07/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 07/20/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)