* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 94 99 103 102 99 93 78 67 50 34 20 V (KT) LAND 80 87 94 99 103 102 99 93 78 67 50 34 20 V (KT) LGE mod 80 87 92 98 102 107 102 88 72 56 42 31 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 6 5 7 8 8 13 11 10 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 5 0 2 3 7 5 7 4 5 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 90 89 52 87 114 11 6 347 9 34 50 79 97 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 28.9 27.4 26.1 25.0 23.3 21.2 20.7 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 163 163 163 153 137 123 112 95 73 67 69 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -51.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 4 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 70 70 67 69 66 63 64 64 63 62 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 21 21 18 20 20 17 19 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -13 2 3 0 7 5 12 5 -2 -8 -3 -6 200 MB DIV 76 124 94 -5 -5 29 38 29 0 15 -13 2 -13 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -9 0 -3 4 5 3 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 340 323 302 299 295 317 360 311 250 291 277 390 483 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.1 21.0 21.9 23.1 23.8 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.4 104.5 105.4 106.3 107.7 108.9 110.1 111.3 112.7 114.3 116.0 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 48 47 44 42 12 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 363 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -12. -19. -26. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. 1. 2. -2. 0. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 23. 22. 19. 13. -2. -13. -30. -46. -60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 39% is 13.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##