* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 35 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 35 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 35 33 29 25 21 19 19 20 20 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 30 34 39 38 25 11 19 38 45 50 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 2 1 0 4 0 -3 1 0 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 13 12 26 41 53 62 63 12 280 278 257 229 N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.9 26.4 24.6 23.4 20.1 15.4 12.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 122 120 118 124 119 104 96 81 71 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 104 102 101 106 102 90 84 74 68 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 10 9 6 5 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 46 42 44 42 37 42 43 56 59 62 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -30 -56 -67 -77 -86 -63 -31 -15 45 115 120 N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -16 -54 -27 -30 -14 1 -10 7 33 49 61 N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 4 1 9 9 23 9 15 29 3 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 451 466 489 504 542 679 665 579 560 511 335 439 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.1 32.6 33.4 34.2 35.8 37.4 39.0 40.5 42.2 43.9 45.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.5 72.7 71.8 71.0 70.2 67.9 65.0 62.0 58.7 55.3 51.5 47.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 9 6 5 5 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -16. -25. -32. -34. -38. -42. -46. -50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/20/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)