* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032011 07/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 45 46 41 32 28 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 45 46 41 32 28 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 38 36 33 29 27 27 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 29 22 25 23 29 33 28 33 40 33 20 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -4 -5 -4 -6 0 0 -5 -8 -6 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 270 277 279 263 268 342 353 341 320 311 293 291 273 SST (C) 26.3 25.7 25.1 24.1 23.1 21.0 16.5 14.5 13.0 13.1 13.8 13.7 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 110 103 97 88 76 73 70 69 69 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 103 99 93 87 81 72 69 68 67 66 65 64 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.7 -56.1 -56.6 -56.4 -55.9 -55.4 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 49 48 51 59 63 58 55 49 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 10 8 8 6 5 7 12 9 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -39 -53 -57 -77 -94 -75 -47 -23 -37 -38 18 50 200 MB DIV 23 10 29 27 17 -16 34 19 9 -1 -9 -17 -21 700-850 TADV 16 15 23 19 52 49 23 44 24 40 29 10 -4 LAND (KM) 1311 1228 1122 1010 949 1046 1377 1311 828 425 222 72 58 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 22 23 23 27 27 24 22 19 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 22 CX,CY: 18/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 401 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. 0. -2. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 16. 11. 2. -2. -7. -18. -28. -37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032011 THREE 07/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032011 THREE 07/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032011 THREE 07/20/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)