* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032011 07/21/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 46 44 38 32 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 46 44 38 32 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 42 40 37 34 33 32 33 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 20 19 13 9 17 21 32 42 39 29 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -8 -9 -6 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 269 258 255 245 293 34 344 309 317 314 304 285 N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.0 24.1 23.2 22.6 20.3 15.7 13.7 12.2 12.5 12.8 12.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 109 102 97 94 85 75 72 70 69 68 67 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 97 92 87 84 78 71 69 68 66 65 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.3 -56.7 -56.3 -56.3 -55.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -54.4 -53.9 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 48 47 51 53 59 65 75 66 53 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 11 11 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -39 -47 -71 -68 -108 -75 -35 23 -41 -24 -2 N/A 200 MB DIV 14 20 22 29 11 12 -1 16 19 12 5 2 N/A 700-850 TADV 12 17 11 34 21 20 45 43 59 61 39 14 N/A LAND (KM) 1234 1103 1000 948 947 1139 1425 1235 744 444 229 133 N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 37.0 38.3 39.7 41.0 43.5 47.0 50.5 54.1 56.8 58.4 59.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.5 50.6 48.7 46.5 44.3 39.3 33.9 27.9 21.4 15.0 9.6 4.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 21 22 22 24 26 26 25 19 15 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 21 CX,CY: 17/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 4. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 9. 3. -3. -10. -17. -25. -31. -39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032011 CINDY 07/21/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032011 CINDY 07/21/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032011 CINDY 07/21/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)