* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 27 23 20 18 18 18 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 40 36 38 32 23 10 18 35 44 56 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 -3 0 2 0 -2 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 22 33 47 48 48 57 11 294 284 248 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.9 26.0 23.9 22.3 18.6 13.9 11.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 119 121 125 116 99 90 77 69 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 102 104 107 99 86 80 71 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 9 8 6 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 44 47 45 44 48 55 64 69 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 2 4 4 2 11 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -54 -68 -101 -88 -68 -37 -28 37 82 95 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -13 -11 0 -16 -9 -4 19 20 47 49 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 12 11 3 19 17 36 26 -19 -35 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 447 489 553 658 687 640 560 520 440 293 458 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.7 34.4 35.2 36.0 37.8 39.5 41.1 42.8 44.5 46.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.1 71.1 70.0 68.7 67.3 64.4 61.4 58.1 54.7 51.0 47.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 14 14 15 14 15 15 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -8. -16. -22. -26. -33. -30. -32. -35. -39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/21/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)