* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 118 113 108 94 81 64 49 34 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 118 118 113 108 94 81 64 49 34 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 118 117 114 109 93 76 60 47 35 26 20 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 9 14 14 6 9 7 10 11 15 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 11 7 0 4 7 6 5 1 0 -2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 96 204 56 28 32 328 33 354 69 65 98 113 113 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.6 27.7 26.4 25.3 24.1 22.3 21.4 21.1 20.3 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 158 150 140 126 115 103 84 75 72 64 61 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 61 61 55 54 55 52 50 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 22 18 19 18 18 15 15 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -8 -10 -1 0 -6 2 -2 -4 -2 -7 10 29 200 MB DIV 14 25 22 1 1 30 7 2 3 -17 -14 -20 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -3 3 -4 0 8 0 4 -6 -3 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 330 315 322 346 372 389 320 333 385 446 558 594 657 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.5 23.3 24.3 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.5 107.3 108.0 108.7 109.8 111.1 112.5 114.2 115.9 117.8 119.5 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 21 10 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -12. -23. -34. -46. -57. -66. -73. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. -2. -7. -21. -34. -51. -66. -81. -96.-108.-121. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##