* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032011 07/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 53 51 45 37 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 53 51 45 37 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 52 50 45 40 37 34 33 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 9 9 13 12 20 24 39 41 30 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 1 0 -4 -5 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 228 273 3 359 332 309 314 311 300 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 22.2 21.4 19.6 18.1 14.5 12.8 12.9 13.4 13.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 92 89 83 79 73 71 70 69 69 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 84 81 77 74 70 69 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -55.7 -55.5 -54.9 -54.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -53.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 47 48 50 57 67 69 58 49 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 14 12 10 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -60 -60 -75 -99 -80 -19 -23 -35 15 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 35 26 1 10 14 7 -13 -8 -7 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 26 15 22 34 35 30 53 32 17 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 896 865 904 1021 1167 1557 964 504 275 67 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 40.9 42.4 44.0 45.6 48.5 51.9 54.5 56.3 57.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.4 45.9 43.4 40.6 37.8 31.5 24.4 17.7 12.0 7.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 27 26 21 17 16 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 25 CX,CY: 16/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -25. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 3. 1. -5. -13. -22. -32. -42. -48. -55. -61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032011 CINDY 07/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032011 CINDY 07/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032011 CINDY 07/21/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)