* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 29 25 23 22 22 22 23 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 45 41 34 27 15 17 30 37 39 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -4 -2 1 2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 56 57 63 62 39 287 278 265 251 234 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.1 24.8 22.8 18.5 15.8 15.6 15.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 124 124 118 107 94 78 72 72 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 107 108 103 94 83 72 68 68 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 9 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 44 45 41 42 43 47 58 62 57 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -99 -88 -73 -69 -30 -30 -5 38 71 110 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 2 -17 -12 -2 -5 -4 27 48 58 63 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 3 4 18 14 11 41 50 38 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 552 633 702 688 685 660 634 459 518 761 1072 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.8 35.6 36.5 37.4 39.2 41.0 42.7 44.4 46.2 48.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.2 69.0 67.8 66.1 64.3 60.0 55.9 51.6 47.3 43.0 38.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 17 18 19 18 18 18 18 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 8 12 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -4. -9. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -16. -21. -27. -31. -33. -38. -44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/21/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)