* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 121 113 101 82 61 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 130 127 121 113 101 82 61 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 130 128 123 114 104 84 67 51 37 27 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 19 13 8 11 19 15 18 12 20 18 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -2 5 10 6 2 2 0 1 -1 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 12 20 34 10 5 34 11 72 72 105 116 117 112 SST (C) 29.4 28.9 28.2 27.4 26.7 25.6 24.6 22.9 21.1 21.0 20.6 19.8 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 145 137 130 118 108 91 72 70 66 60 60 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 7 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 58 54 58 52 58 56 51 50 50 45 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 19 21 20 16 19 16 15 13 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -13 0 1 -7 0 0 1 1 -5 -11 9 10 28 200 MB DIV 11 -12 -29 -27 7 -30 -8 13 -14 3 -2 -12 -4 700-850 TADV 1 -8 -1 9 4 -3 0 -3 4 -2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 313 330 350 374 392 308 281 342 361 450 431 472 572 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.8 23.7 24.7 25.5 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.7 108.3 108.9 109.5 110.7 111.8 113.3 115.1 116.6 117.6 119.0 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 9 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 11 14 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -13. -26. -40. -55. -69. -81. -90. -97.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -11. -10. -10. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -5. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -17. -29. -48. -69. -88.-106.-122.-137.-150.-161. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##