* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 19 18 17 16 16 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 39 33 24 17 13 27 35 39 33 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 2 1 1 -2 0 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 57 62 56 27 329 277 265 263 254 220 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.9 26.8 25.7 24.8 23.8 20.5 17.1 16.4 16.3 13.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 125 124 114 107 100 84 74 73 73 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 108 108 100 94 88 76 70 69 69 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -53.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 47 45 45 47 46 56 65 63 54 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 2 2 5 4 4 3 16 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -79 -71 -67 -50 -15 0 21 53 95 145 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -11 -16 -15 0 5 1 51 52 62 67 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 6 8 18 16 37 37 54 37 0 -21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 636 686 664 654 626 634 523 510 716 985 1293 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.0 36.9 37.8 38.6 40.3 42.0 43.6 45.4 47.2 49.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.9 67.4 65.8 63.8 61.8 57.2 52.7 48.3 44.0 39.7 35.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 18 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 2. -4. -9. -11. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -25. -31. -24. -22. -25. -30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/22/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/22/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)