* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 103 92 84 73 62 48 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 103 92 84 73 62 48 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 106 97 89 81 67 54 41 29 21 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 13 6 13 14 15 13 17 17 19 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 2 6 6 1 2 -1 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 18 46 29 330 9 29 32 55 63 97 105 114 124 SST (C) 28.8 28.1 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.1 23.5 21.7 20.8 20.8 20.0 19.5 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 144 135 129 123 113 97 78 69 68 60 59 59 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -50.8 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 6 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 58 58 60 58 55 57 59 55 54 50 45 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 19 15 19 17 13 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -4 0 -6 9 2 -7 -11 -12 8 21 30 200 MB DIV -5 -31 -29 1 -22 -30 19 -19 0 -8 -9 -16 -17 700-850 TADV -6 0 6 12 1 -4 0 0 -4 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 332 349 374 380 333 278 305 311 387 440 460 530 600 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.7 21.7 22.6 23.4 24.3 25.3 26.1 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.4 109.0 109.6 110.1 111.3 112.7 114.2 115.8 117.3 118.7 120.0 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -11. -22. -35. -49. -62. -72. -80. -86. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -2. -4. -10. -10. -11. -14. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -23. -31. -42. -53. -67. -86. -99.-112.-125.-136.-147. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/22/11 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##