* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022011 07/22/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 23 20 19 18 17 17 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 31 24 17 18 19 31 28 27 5 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -2 0 -2 -5 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 60 47 25 355 295 287 288 272 293 196 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 25.8 24.9 24.9 22.7 18.7 18.3 17.5 15.0 13.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 115 107 108 94 78 77 75 71 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 100 95 95 84 73 71 70 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 46 46 46 46 53 56 55 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 2 2 6 8 6 5 6 20 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -66 -62 -44 -23 -6 -3 4 21 31 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -9 -11 -5 -3 0 15 32 47 56 37 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 6 25 19 23 26 59 82 19 -20 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 663 662 647 637 668 635 533 689 956 1247 1506 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.2 37.0 37.8 38.6 39.3 41.0 42.6 44.2 45.9 47.8 50.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.4 65.7 63.9 61.7 59.4 54.4 49.6 45.0 40.5 36.1 31.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 18 19 20 20 19 18 18 18 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 16 CX,CY: 11/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 4. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 12. 12. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -15. -21. -24. -12. -11. -13. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022011 BRET 07/22/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022011 BRET 07/22/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022011 BRET 07/22/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)