* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032011 07/22/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 34 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 34 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 40 37 35 30 27 27 27 30 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 25 30 27 14 30 33 27 16 10 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 1 -1 2 -3 -7 -6 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 357 357 359 336 279 285 270 220 231 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 19.9 18.2 15.3 14.0 13.5 11.6 11.9 11.8 11.7 12.4 12.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 83 80 74 73 72 70 68 66 64 65 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 75 71 70 70 68 66 63 62 62 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.2 -52.8 -51.2 -50.3 -49.9 -48.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 54 58 59 55 52 48 42 49 50 53 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -84 -90 -47 -31 -33 7 -39 0 3 24 32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 20 37 13 28 23 -1 -5 -14 -22 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 35 21 48 32 23 30 3 -11 -14 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 989 1135 1312 1514 1321 856 629 441 324 192 283 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.7 45.6 47.4 49.2 50.9 55.2 58.0 59.7 60.5 60.1 60.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.2 38.3 35.3 32.3 29.3 23.1 17.2 12.6 9.2 6.3 2.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 28 27 26 27 25 18 12 8 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 23 CX,CY: 18/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 6. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -22. -28. -34. -39. -42. -46. -52. -58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032011 CINDY 07/22/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032011 CINDY 07/22/11 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032011 CINDY 07/22/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED