* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/22/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 79 66 54 48 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 79 66 54 48 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 82 72 65 59 49 39 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 17 6 8 13 13 10 11 13 22 19 20 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 8 2 2 3 6 3 0 3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 34 70 38 30 36 31 63 58 102 118 122 128 127 SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.7 24.5 22.9 21.0 20.0 20.1 19.5 19.1 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 136 129 124 119 106 90 71 60 61 60 59 58 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 58 57 59 55 54 54 51 46 41 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 17 14 17 16 16 13 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 -8 -7 0 -3 -6 -15 -21 0 6 25 42 200 MB DIV -24 -22 4 5 -9 11 17 -15 21 0 -13 -8 -7 700-850 TADV 0 8 7 0 -4 0 -1 0 -3 0 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 346 371 381 316 260 218 259 247 316 327 388 493 591 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.6 22.4 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.4 26.9 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.6 112.8 114.2 115.7 117.2 118.6 119.9 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -14. -25. -37. -49. -58. -64. -69. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -9. -14. -15. -15. -12. -9. -6. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -10. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -4. -9. -12. -14. -15. -12. -9. -6. -1. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -16. -29. -41. -47. -59. -68. -83. -97.-108.-119.-127.-135. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/22/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/22/11 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##