* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032011 07/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 39 38 35 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 39 38 35 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 41 39 36 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 28 24 11 12 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 360 3 352 332 324 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.0 16.4 14.6 14.2 13.3 13.1 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 76 73 73 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 72 70 70 70 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -53.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 55 56 50 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 6 10 9 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -106 -65 -50 -51 -28 -27 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 23 10 16 11 -12 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 11 27 17 5 42 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1148 1317 1511 1330 1039 479 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.9 46.6 48.2 49.7 51.2 53.7 56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.4 35.5 32.5 28.9 25.3 17.3 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 27 28 28 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 23 CX,CY: 20/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -12. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 10. 10. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -7. -10. -13. -20. -28. -36. -43. -50. -57. -63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032011 CINDY 07/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032011 CINDY 07/22/11 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032011 CINDY 07/22/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED