* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 43 50 54 59 63 66 69 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 43 50 44 52 56 59 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 33 37 34 40 44 49 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 9 13 11 15 14 20 18 21 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -2 1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 33 121 200 237 272 284 295 270 283 271 276 276 322 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 148 151 152 147 147 150 154 159 159 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 149 150 154 154 147 144 145 146 150 150 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 14 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 62 62 64 62 61 58 59 59 62 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 29 24 26 21 29 23 33 4 4 -21 -13 -40 200 MB DIV 42 48 47 33 19 24 15 22 -3 3 16 25 22 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -6 -6 -9 1 3 4 -3 -2 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 760 631 531 471 478 276 157 45 -11 94 71 210 200 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.9 16.7 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.3 57.9 59.6 61.2 64.5 67.8 70.8 73.6 76.1 78.3 80.5 82.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 75 78 71 83 74 69 85 74 40 89 98 95 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 39. 43. 46. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/22/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/22/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)