* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 61 49 40 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 61 49 40 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 62 53 47 43 35 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 4 4 9 10 10 8 12 15 17 20 18 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 -2 -1 0 5 1 0 0 3 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 23 349 22 51 37 39 52 80 99 105 106 96 79 SST (C) 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.9 23.4 21.2 20.3 20.4 20.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 127 122 117 111 96 73 63 63 58 58 57 57 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 59 58 59 57 58 56 57 54 54 47 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 15 15 19 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -10 -13 2 0 -1 -10 -21 -20 -6 5 2 20 200 MB DIV -29 3 11 25 0 19 -17 12 3 4 -9 -2 -12 700-850 TADV 9 10 0 -6 -8 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 393 368 311 273 255 268 247 332 357 347 309 312 341 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.0 22.0 23.2 24.1 24.9 25.7 26.4 26.9 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.7 110.2 110.8 111.4 112.5 114.0 115.5 116.8 117.6 117.7 118.0 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -19. -29. -38. -44. -49. -53. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -10. -15. -18. -18. -16. -14. -11. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. 0. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -10. -8. -4. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -14. -26. -35. -39. -52. -64. -77. -89.-100.-110.-117.-124. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -40.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/22/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##