* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032011 07/22/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 32 31 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 32 31 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 33 31 28 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 24 13 12 19 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 -2 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 8 343 323 342 319 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.8 14.9 14.3 13.6 12.9 13.6 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 73 73 72 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 70 70 70 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -53.3 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 52 53 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 10 9 11 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -57 -65 -48 -43 -46 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 14 29 8 1 -20 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 22 22 -6 19 26 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1305 1512 1379 1078 798 246 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 46.3 47.8 49.3 50.7 52.1 54.6 56.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.7 32.6 29.4 25.7 22.0 13.6 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 27 27 28 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 8. 5. 2. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -19. -26. -33. -40. -46. -53. -59. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032011 CINDY 07/22/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032011 CINDY 07/22/11 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032011 CINDY 07/22/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED