* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/22/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 54 48 43 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 61 54 48 43 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 61 55 49 45 36 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 17 10 3 10 10 20 21 19 11 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 -2 0 4 4 2 0 -1 1 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 355 21 46 45 23 71 83 111 119 124 92 91 61 SST (C) 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.0 24.4 22.6 20.6 20.2 20.3 19.8 19.3 18.6 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 118 112 106 87 66 62 62 58 59 59 59 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 60 60 55 53 50 50 47 45 36 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 13 16 16 16 14 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -10 -6 -6 -9 -21 -25 -1 3 21 33 58 200 MB DIV -10 9 16 -6 2 17 -20 17 1 -2 -7 0 -6 700-850 TADV 13 0 -10 -5 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 1 0 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 379 328 287 256 249 268 268 337 341 334 334 373 397 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.5 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.8 27.7 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.2 110.7 111.3 111.8 113.1 114.6 115.9 117.0 117.7 118.2 118.8 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -30. -38. -43. -47. -51. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -27. -39. -54. -69. -83. -95.-104.-111.-116. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/22/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/22/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##