* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032011 07/23/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 27 29 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 27 29 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 27 25 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 18 17 25 34 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 -1 -1 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 349 304 298 310 303 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 14.5 14.0 12.8 12.3 12.5 12.3 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 74 73 73 73 72 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 71 71 71 70 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.3 -52.7 -50.9 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 59 53 43 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 5 13 11 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -44 -28 -11 -40 9 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 31 20 3 -7 -12 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 19 1 10 36 -13 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1481 1333 1029 727 498 242 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 48.3 50.0 51.7 53.9 56.0 59.1 60.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.9 29.1 25.3 21.1 16.9 9.2 4.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 30 31 33 29 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 25 CX,CY: 19/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -4. -3. -2. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 14. 10. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -29. -32. -36. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 4. 4. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -6. -8. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. -45. -50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032011 CINDY 07/23/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032011 CINDY 07/23/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED