* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/23/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 47 54 58 61 62 65 66 71 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 47 54 37 42 33 30 34 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 33 36 42 48 35 41 33 30 35 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 11 12 11 12 15 13 20 16 13 7 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -3 0 0 2 0 -1 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 193 250 276 310 295 283 277 281 258 268 269 312 81 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 151 152 152 149 145 148 150 153 155 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 153 154 153 147 141 141 140 142 142 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 14 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 64 65 62 59 60 58 55 58 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 21 24 24 17 24 -3 -11 -51 -64 -81 -51 200 MB DIV 79 41 23 18 24 15 36 -4 4 -1 5 3 -3 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -10 -6 3 -4 4 -2 0 -2 -8 3 LAND (KM) 498 452 466 455 301 104 26 -27 15 -54 -27 30 66 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.9 17.0 18.1 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.8 23.0 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.5 61.0 62.6 64.1 67.1 69.8 72.4 74.5 76.5 78.1 79.7 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 16 15 15 13 12 10 10 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 78 83 75 71 69 75 73 71 72 68 92 2 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 40. 41. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/23/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/23/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/23/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)