* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/23/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 49 54 56 58 61 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 49 54 56 58 61 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 44 48 51 55 59 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 14 10 9 18 20 22 24 19 18 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -3 -2 3 -1 3 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 243 277 303 288 277 273 278 282 280 270 263 233 264 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 152 152 151 147 149 151 157 157 157 152 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 153 155 154 152 146 146 147 151 149 148 143 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 11 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 62 62 60 57 57 58 60 61 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 34 30 22 26 25 8 -1 -15 -25 -29 -27 200 MB DIV 27 14 24 25 7 25 16 22 19 29 19 43 16 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -7 -4 -1 -1 -6 3 -6 -2 -3 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 435 460 423 291 215 167 71 90 22 240 244 111 20 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.8 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 61.6 63.2 64.8 66.4 69.5 72.5 75.4 77.9 80.2 82.5 84.7 87.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 13 12 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 84 72 77 74 81 86 77 89 43 97 100 84 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 24. 29. 31. 33. 36. 39. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/23/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/23/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/23/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)