* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 38 43 46 51 55 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 33 42 45 50 55 61 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 27 31 33 35 39 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 11 15 19 19 22 24 24 18 14 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 1 0 0 -1 -5 -1 0 0 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 277 299 274 262 267 267 282 274 287 295 338 302 339 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 149 148 147 150 156 157 159 157 146 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 155 153 149 147 145 146 150 149 150 146 135 122 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 13 13 14 13 13 12 13 11 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 61 62 62 57 58 58 63 60 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 32 30 23 17 41 11 9 -16 -14 -34 -8 -9 200 MB DIV 22 29 15 -1 0 32 6 14 24 39 18 33 12 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 0 3 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -4 -5 -16 LAND (KM) 502 388 241 161 148 17 -2 56 161 223 151 121 -32 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 63.2 64.8 66.4 68.0 71.2 74.2 76.8 79.2 81.4 83.5 85.6 88.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 11 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 69 74 70 71 82 75 78 74 97 98 95 80 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 26. 30. 37. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/23/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)