* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042011 07/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 33 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 13 13 17 16 13 17 25 28 18 19 13 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 35 21 39 75 101 111 123 117 119 112 135 138 149 SST (C) 24.7 24.0 23.2 22.3 21.4 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.6 19.1 18.7 18.4 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 109 102 93 84 75 60 59 58 58 59 59 59 59 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 63 59 58 59 53 49 46 40 30 27 20 17 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -14 -13 -14 -23 -30 -25 -6 10 20 45 67 81 200 MB DIV -24 5 31 26 -9 5 -7 2 1 2 -1 -14 -8 700-850 TADV 0 4 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 267 267 275 264 249 290 307 296 331 363 449 528 549 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 24.2 25.1 25.9 26.3 27.1 27.6 28.3 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.2 112.7 113.3 113.9 115.1 116.3 117.1 117.9 118.6 119.6 121.0 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -4. -11. -16. -21. -26. -27. -28. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -26. -42. -60. -77. -91.-100.-106.-109.-110. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042011 DORA 07/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##