* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 46 52 55 59 63 67 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 34 43 49 52 56 61 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 28 33 36 39 43 49 56 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 14 21 21 20 16 22 15 18 8 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -3 -6 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 301 269 256 260 273 268 271 278 282 291 343 313 358 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.6 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 148 148 150 156 159 159 157 145 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 150 148 147 148 151 151 149 146 134 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 12 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 66 65 61 58 58 58 55 60 63 63 65 63 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 24 16 26 23 2 -9 -21 -33 -30 -19 -1 200 MB DIV 36 21 1 -1 37 32 18 5 20 6 15 13 12 700-850 TADV -5 -1 4 3 0 -6 5 -6 -1 -5 -3 -8 -12 LAND (KM) 330 189 128 102 66 -15 80 158 201 132 93 47 168 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 65.5 67.2 68.9 70.6 73.8 76.7 79.2 81.4 83.5 85.6 87.7 90.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 16 15 13 11 11 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 70 70 78 79 75 56 97 96 98 100 77 1 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 27. 30. 34. 39. 42. 44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/23/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/23/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)