* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/26/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 46 50 56 61 67 71 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 46 50 56 61 67 43 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 49 58 67 45 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 19 7 10 10 1 11 5 12 10 12 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -6 -5 -5 -3 -2 -1 -5 0 -6 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 264 265 286 293 236 317 220 359 20 33 59 57 1 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.2 28.2 28.9 28.9 27.9 28.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 166 164 153 139 140 151 151 136 137 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 155 155 152 141 127 128 138 138 123 124 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 12 15 11 15 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 61 59 60 58 56 56 52 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -16 -28 -28 -32 -42 -26 -24 -15 -15 -10 -4 -18 200 MB DIV 21 22 -4 17 7 0 18 6 6 -11 7 2 -24 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -6 0 -7 2 -10 -2 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 193 261 246 214 145 114 26 162 317 344 77 -181 -431 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.7 23.5 24.3 25.1 25.7 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 81.0 82.1 83.1 84.0 85.8 87.6 89.6 91.8 94.2 96.7 99.2 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 96 96 99 103 106 73 1 11 34 47 25 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 25. 31. 36. 42. 46. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/26/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 100.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/26/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/26/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)