* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/26/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 56 61 67 70 75 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 56 61 56 36 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 42 51 60 58 37 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 6 7 4 11 6 13 7 8 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -2 -2 -1 -5 0 -3 -3 0 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 237 272 347 52 307 57 9 25 15 57 16 95 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.4 29.0 29.2 28.3 27.6 28.6 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 156 150 143 142 152 155 141 132 146 156 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 150 143 136 130 130 138 141 127 117 130 137 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 12 12 12 14 14 12 12 12 10 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 63 61 58 58 53 51 47 49 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -34 -29 -40 -28 -26 -19 -39 -19 -28 -24 -11 -35 200 MB DIV 26 7 8 -2 6 10 -2 22 -13 17 1 9 -10 700-850 TADV -4 0 -1 -5 -3 0 -8 1 -13 -2 0 -13 4 LAND (KM) 112 66 70 83 76 174 339 421 181 -22 -266 -504 -602 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.2 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 26.9 27.9 28.8 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.6 85.4 86.3 87.1 88.9 91.0 93.1 95.4 97.6 100.0 102.3 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 110 102 94 41 3 16 43 56 39 12 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 24. 31. 36. 42. 45. 50. 51. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/26/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/26/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/26/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)