* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042011 07/27/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 50 55 59 62 65 66 67 66 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 50 55 50 35 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 50 57 54 36 29 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 7 10 13 14 15 12 12 3 8 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 -4 0 -1 -4 -3 1 -3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 29 132 328 11 35 6 43 23 72 23 110 165 153 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.1 28.7 28.3 27.2 25.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 145 151 156 155 147 138 147 141 126 104 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 132 138 142 140 132 122 128 121 107 88 78 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 62 60 60 58 51 51 50 51 49 52 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 4 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -10 -6 -12 -3 -20 -1 -23 -23 -20 -35 -19 -40 200 MB DIV 14 7 13 20 24 10 9 3 7 10 -2 6 -3 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 -6 -10 0 -12 -9 -3 -19 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 88 128 190 283 376 431 208 -24 -266 -482 -673 -778 -841 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 10 13 29 29 66 39 20 0 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 FOUR 07/27/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 FOUR 07/27/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 FOUR 07/27/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)