* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/27/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 50 56 60 63 67 68 69 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 50 56 49 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 50 58 53 35 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 10 10 8 13 10 10 3 7 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 0 -4 1 -3 -5 -2 1 -3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 48 144 328 11 55 5 44 30 69 17 104 160 157 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.1 28.7 28.3 27.2 25.0 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 144 151 156 154 146 138 147 141 126 103 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 131 138 142 139 130 122 128 121 107 87 78 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 62 58 53 51 50 51 50 52 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 4 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -8 -3 -8 -1 -17 0 -18 -21 -16 -34 -15 -38 200 MB DIV 16 6 13 20 27 10 8 3 9 10 -3 7 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 -6 -10 0 -11 -11 -3 -18 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 85 128 198 292 385 401 201 -43 -286 -505 -696 -756 -820 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 19 31 32 66 38 19 0 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 20. 26. 30. 33. 37. 38. 39. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/27/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/27/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/27/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)