* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL042011 07/28/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 49 53 57 60 63 66 67 65 64 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 49 53 57 40 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 48 55 61 44 32 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 11 12 10 15 10 11 6 7 1 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -6 0 -5 -4 -2 -4 0 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 121 306 357 17 34 17 21 34 70 63 107 59 293 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.3 28.9 28.6 26.4 23.7 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 151 156 159 154 143 141 150 145 117 94 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 138 142 144 138 127 124 130 124 100 81 74 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 12 11 14 11 14 11 12 9 11 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 59 56 55 50 52 49 48 48 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -16 -6 -2 -9 -32 -17 -18 -24 -32 -34 -33 -36 200 MB DIV 3 3 16 18 14 -16 0 -9 9 0 2 1 -1 700-850 TADV 0 3 -6 -13 -2 -6 -12 -10 -1 -10 7 4 16 LAND (KM) 103 183 282 380 455 320 90 -133 -359 -557 -745 -798 -928 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.2 23.8 24.5 25.1 26.4 27.7 28.6 29.3 30.3 31.7 32.9 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.7 89.7 90.8 91.8 93.6 95.9 98.2 100.5 102.2 103.5 104.5 103.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 29 28 34 57 28 0 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 32. 30. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 DON 07/28/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 DON 07/28/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 DON 07/28/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)