* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL042011 07/28/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 41 43 48 50 53 57 61 64 64 63 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 41 43 48 50 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 42 46 51 34 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 16 12 17 15 14 11 7 6 3 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -2 -5 -3 0 -4 -3 -2 -5 1 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 329 356 13 19 19 37 33 76 43 98 336 142 321 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.3 28.8 28.0 28.6 28.9 28.4 27.4 25.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 147 154 157 157 149 137 145 149 140 126 110 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 135 140 143 142 134 122 125 126 117 104 92 82 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 53 52 57 53 51 47 50 49 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 7 6 5 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -10 -5 -14 -27 -9 -29 -29 -29 -41 -21 -33 -11 200 MB DIV 13 32 18 20 14 -3 8 -6 5 -12 7 -4 3 700-850 TADV 6 -3 -18 -2 5 -15 -10 -3 -17 2 -13 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 136 233 331 427 437 260 0 -213 -376 -538 -605 -632 -704 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.8 25.4 26.6 28.0 28.9 29.6 30.4 31.2 32.0 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.3 90.3 91.3 92.3 94.5 96.9 99.0 100.5 101.9 102.1 101.6 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 9 7 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 24 31 30 48 34 2 0 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 15. 18. 22. 26. 29. 29. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 DON 07/28/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 DON 07/28/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 DON 07/28/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)