* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL042011 07/28/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 45 47 50 51 55 58 60 59 57 52 V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 45 47 50 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 47 49 53 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 12 14 19 15 17 7 14 6 12 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -5 0 2 -4 0 -3 -3 -1 -4 5 2 SHEAR DIR 353 15 19 10 26 26 44 27 45 50 67 42 61 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.1 28.1 28.9 28.9 28.2 27.0 25.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 157 156 152 139 138 149 149 137 122 104 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 143 141 137 123 122 129 127 114 102 88 79 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 12 10 14 12 14 12 13 10 11 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 56 54 57 55 54 52 50 49 51 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 2 -7 -23 -24 -2 -20 -22 -32 -39 -39 -32 -26 200 MB DIV 19 19 17 18 -4 8 -2 3 5 -3 0 0 -3 700-850 TADV 1 -12 -2 4 -7 -9 -7 -1 -7 3 -9 10 6 LAND (KM) 266 355 445 448 340 127 -122 -340 -500 -665 -703 -708 -775 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.4 26.0 27.1 28.0 28.9 29.7 30.6 31.4 32.3 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 89.5 90.6 91.7 92.8 93.8 96.1 98.5 100.5 101.9 103.3 103.2 102.4 102.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 8 8 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 33 60 56 33 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 15. 18. 20. 19. 17. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 DON 07/28/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 DON 07/28/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 DON 07/28/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)