* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL042011 07/28/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 52 54 56 62 62 65 64 61 58 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 52 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 51 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 17 16 12 13 10 6 6 7 7 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -3 -4 -4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 2 5 3 22 41 25 70 20 75 5 101 54 109 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.5 27.9 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.0 25.8 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 156 151 144 136 149 149 142 132 121 109 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 141 136 129 120 129 128 120 109 99 91 81 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 58 55 51 55 56 53 54 50 51 51 48 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 6 7 6 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -10 -31 -24 0 -22 -28 -17 -43 -28 -45 -21 -26 200 MB DIV 32 28 4 -1 8 2 -2 6 -6 18 -6 19 -7 700-850 TADV -15 0 1 -16 -14 -10 -3 -15 4 -3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 384 460 431 313 203 -31 -271 -476 -629 -689 -715 -765 -807 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.1 25.6 26.3 26.9 28.0 29.2 29.9 30.4 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.8 92.9 94.1 95.2 97.4 99.5 101.5 103.0 104.3 104.3 103.5 103.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 4 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 33 66 48 37 19 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 22. 22. 25. 24. 21. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 DON 07/28/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 DON 07/28/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 DON 07/28/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)