* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL042011 07/29/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 57 61 61 62 64 64 62 58 55 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 57 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 54 56 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 12 11 15 6 11 3 7 3 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 2 -2 0 -4 0 -5 -2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 3 357 22 37 26 42 65 66 112 66 76 48 345 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 28.0 29.0 29.1 28.6 27.6 25.9 24.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 151 144 137 137 152 152 144 129 111 98 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 135 128 123 122 132 130 121 106 95 84 77 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 12 13 12 15 11 12 8 11 7 12 700-500 MB RH 55 50 55 55 50 53 54 54 52 49 46 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 10 8 8 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -32 -20 2 -6 -16 -31 -34 -38 -31 -30 -20 -4 200 MB DIV 23 7 0 13 22 -9 12 2 0 7 -11 1 14 700-850 TADV -2 4 -11 -15 -8 -13 -3 3 3 -1 2 3 9 LAND (KM) 432 427 310 208 110 -136 -376 -569 -668 -641 -745 -761 -797 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.2 25.7 26.2 26.6 27.7 28.6 29.4 30.3 31.1 31.9 32.8 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 91.9 93.0 94.1 95.2 96.2 98.7 101.0 102.8 104.0 105.0 104.3 102.6 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 12 10 8 6 4 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 59 49 31 25 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 16. 17. 19. 19. 17. 13. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042011 DON 07/29/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042011 DON 07/29/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042011 DON 07/29/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)